China’s Missing Cornerstone Towards Global Reach — Territorial Moral High Ground Third and last part on China’s geopolitics and military. (re-)Read part 1: China, The Planned Superpower (Part 1). (re-)Read Part 2: China: Dreaming of a Blue-Water Navy (Part 2). In the previous two parts, China: The Planned Superpower (Part 1) & China: Dreaming of a Blue-Water Navy (Part 2), we’ve…

China’s Missing Cornerstone Towards Global Reach — An Operational Blue-Water Navy Second part following China, The Planned Superpower (Part 1) — How China is planning its way into becoming a superpower, whether anyone likes it or not. Let’s cut through the chase. Everything comes to the fact that China does not have a true blue-water navy.

How China is Planning its Way into Becoming a Superpower, Whether Anyone Likes It or Not After 20 years of military modernisation, China released its new Defense whitepaper released last July 2019: China’s National Defense in the New Era (pdf download). This whitepaper explains China’s strategy to become a true superpower by 2050, on par or overtaking the US. This reported trigger the following analysis by…

How to Think and Change your Mind When I first read Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting, I thought I understood his concept of “the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”. It sounds right, you don’t need to dig deeper, do you? It is the basis of another famous principle: “Strong assumptions, weakly held.” I…

5 things I learnt from my time in strategy consulting that shaped my subsequent career 1 Slide = 1 Idea This is probably the single highest-leverage advice I would recommend. When I started in consulting, this is one of the very first guidelines I was given. Lots of consultants try and fight it for some time. I think it is an absolutely brilliant principle to follow. It is the archetype…

1. It is the most direct way of internalising feedback from reality — fast In a previous issue, we talked about Josh Waitzkin’s way of mastering learning as a skill. If you remember, a lot of his own life experience was related to sports, after him switching from Chess to Tai Chi. This happens to be for a good reason: many sports are a…

Two weeks ago, our baby daughter discovered stair steps. More precisely, that one single step under a doorframe. She immediately started the fascinating venture to climb over that step again and again… and again. Both my wife and mother-in-law were very nearby (obviously). …

The classical definition of Antifragility Antifragility is a concept introduced by Nassim Taleb to describe complex (eco)system’s reaction to negative shocks. Systems can react in three different ways to those negative shocks: suffer or crumble: imagine a house being struck by an earthquake — if the house survives the shock, it usually becomes more likely…

Key Practical Principles I recently finished The Art of Learning, by Josh Waitzkin. It is a beautiful book: a captivating story, deep teachings, and overall something quite pleasant to read. I advise you to read it if you can find the time. It is not too long. The key practical principles I noted…